They saw it coming!
Coulomb Stress Transfer model of the Mw6.3 earthquake of 15 February 2003 generated by the
Masbate segment of the Philippine Fault near Uson Bay, using the NW-SE nodal plane of the M6.6
earthquake of 18 August 2020 as the receiver fault. Note increase in stress in Cataingan Bay, at the
location of the 2020 event, suggesting the likelihood of a triggering mechanism between the two
earthquakes. In 2018, a similar CST model was generated by a group of geology students of
Adamson University for their undergraduate thesis (CJM Legaspi, JPD Ortega, PRC Reyes and EGC
Riza). On page 34 of their thesis, carried out under the supervision of SGT researchers, they state:
“The February 15, 2003 earthquake [produced] significant stress increase of 1 to 0.3 bars . . . in
Cataingan and Pio V. Corpuz.” Indeed, Legaspi et al. saw it coming!
By JAP Escudero and MA Aurelio, 20 August 2020
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